Reparations, Trade and Foreign Exchange.

Foreign Affairs and Trade

It is known that a theory in S5-epistemic logic with several agents may have numerous models. This is because each such model specifies also what an agent knows about infinite intersections of events, while the expressive power of the logic is limited to finite conjunctions of formulas. We show that this asymmetry between syntax and semantics persists also when infinite conjunctions (up to some...

Foreign Trade and Equilibrium Indeterminacy

We show that dependence of production on foreign inputs (or non-producible natural resources) can significantly increase the likelihood of indeterminacy. Payment of imported foreign factors of production may act as a semi-fixed cost, amplifying production externalities and returns to scale, making selffulfilling expectations driven busyness cycles easier to arise. This is demonstrated using a s...

Foreign Exchange Pass-Through and the Potential Use of Grain Export-Denominated Trade Weighted Indices by

Time and foreign exchange markets

The definition of time is still an open question when one deals with high frequency time series. If time is simply the calendar time, prices can be modeled as continuous random processes and values resulting from transactions or given quotes are discrete samples of this underlying dynamics. On the contrary, if one takes the business time point of view, price dynamics is a discrete random proces...

Timing Foreign Exchange Markets

Priced level, slope, and volatility risk factors recently proposed in the finance literature help explain long-standing puzzles related to the cross-section of carry trade returns. In this paper, we examine whether the information contained in these global factors allows foreign exchange market speculators in individual currencies to successfully time the direction of their carry trades, both w...